Validation and Comparison of two Risk stratification Models in st segment elevation Myocardial Infarction

pp. 119-124

Abstract

Background: Risk scores are recommended to stratify and predict mortality in ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEMI). The ProACS and Simple Risk Index (SRI) models are simple scores that have demonstrated adequate predictive capacity of in-hospital mortality in other countries.

Objective: The aim of this study was to validate and compare the ProACS and SRI scores as predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with STEMI.

Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of a cohort composed of consecutive patients from the CONAREC XVII registry hospitalized with STEMI diagnosis. The predictive value for in-hospital mortality was estimated and validity was assessed by discrimination and calibration.

Results: The study analyzed 694 patients. In-hospital mortality was 8.78%. The median ProACS score was 4 (IQR 25-75, 2.5-5) in patients who presented the event, and 2 (IQR 25-75 1-3) in those without the event (p <0.001) and the median SRI score was 41.3 (IQR 25-75, 29.8-62.5) and 20.8 (IQR 25-75 15.4-30) in those who died and those who did not, respectively (p <0.001). The SRI score showed excellent discrimination (AUC 0.83, 95% CI 0.78-0.88, p=0.001) and the ProACS score evidenced good discrimination (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.71-0.86, p = 0.001) for the outcome. The HL test applied to the ProACS score presented χ2=8.6 (p=0.3), and the SRI score χ2=5.4 (p=0.7).

Conclusions: The ProACS and SRI risk scores for the prediction of in-hospital mortality were adequately validated in patients with STEMI in Argentina. This suggests their suitability for clinical use in this population.