If we could differentiate the universal goals of the medical sciences, we might conclude that there are three: diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment.
Their relative importance differs between patients and doctors. The question I have chosen to title this letter is probably the most important to the patient. However, it is the one that has received the least scientific and technical development.
In daily practice we use prognostic tools consistently and even dogmatically. In fact, many times we try to use scores generated to predict an event X in one population and extrapolate them to an event Y in another. (1) Most of these tools have areas under the ROC curve ranging from 0.60 to 0.85. (2,3) If we offered someone these tools to detect fraudulent banking transactions, they would quickly shake our hand and show us the way out.
This poor current predictive performance is due not only to multiple limitations and difficulties associated with healthcare data management, but also to the tools that have been used so far. In the work entitled Events Prediction Ability in Patients with Hypertension using Artificial Neural Network Analysis of Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring Compared to Clinical Risk Stratification, Di Gennaro et al. developed a simple neural network model capable of predicting what will happen to our patients more accurately. (4)
Beyond the limitations acknowledged by the authors, it is worth highlighting what this work represents: the introduction of Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools into clinical practice. The integration of AI into medicine will change our practice in ways we cannot yet imagine. By integrating multiple variables, creating ones that we did not know existed or linking facts that elude human analysis, we will be able to provide precision medicine. (5)
But not all that glitters is gold. For example, neural networks tend to overfit, i.e. they have high internal validity, but when validated in external cohorts their performance can drop significantly.
To conclude, this work represents one of the first instances of using AI tools in medicine at a national level and, despite its design limitations, it gives us a very small sample of what this integration could represent and encourages us to continue research in this area.
Ethical considerations
Not applicable.
Conflicts of interest
None declared. (See authors' conflict of interests forms on the web).
